From Left to Right: J.J. Singh / jjsingh.com, Kannan Srinivasan / kannanforvirginia.com, Kannan Srinivasan / ramforva.com, Tumay Harding / tumayforva.com
CV NEWS FEED // On January 7, Virginia voters will go to the polls for two special elections – and the rare opportunity for Republicans to win back control of the State Senate mid-term.
Politico reported that Republican State Senate candidate Tumay Harding and Republican House of Delegates candidate Ram Venkatachalam “are centering their campaigns on school choice, cutting taxes and combating high living costs.”
Both seats are entirely located in Loudoun County, a Democratic-leaning county in the Washington D.C. metropolitan area.
“Republicans continue to see parental rights as a winning campaign issue, especially in Loudoun County, which has seen several high-profile clashes between parents and the school board,” Politico added.
In particular, Harding’s campaign website highlights her role in Loudon County’s burgeoning parent’s rights movement. Harding is a mother of three daughters.
The northern Virginia county has frequently made headlines over the past few years and is widely regarded as a key battleground in the debate over parental rights in education.
The Republican nominee in Virginia’s 32nd Senate district special election is teacher and parents’ rights activist Tumay Harding, who is facing off against Del. Kannan Srinivasan, D-Broadlands.
The winner of this race will replace U.S. Rep.-elect Suhas Subramanyam, D-VA, in the State Senate. Subramanyam is set to take office in Washington also in early January.
Srinvasan’s candidacy in the state Senate race has also prompted a special election for his seat in the state House of Delegates between Republican IT consultant Ram Venkatachalam and Democratic hotel businessman JJ Singh.
>> RESOURCES FOR VIRGINIA VOTERS ARE AVAILABLE HERE <<
This unique series of twin races is an example of what analysts often refer to as “special election musical chairs.”
CatholicVote Vice President Joshua Mercer noted that the Virginia Legislature “is super close.” If Republicans manage to score an upset victory in just one of the two races, he said, “Democrats won’t control both houses of the Legislature – stopping their attempts to put abortion on the ballot.”
Mercer noted that in order for a pro-abortion measure to appear on a Virginia ballot, it “has to be approved by two consecutive legislative sessions.”
>> RESOURCES FOR VIRGINIA VOTERS ARE AVAILABLE HERE <<
Currently, Democrats control both houses of the Virginia legislature by a slim majority, with 51 seats in the House of Delegates to the Republicans’ 49.
In the state Senate, Democrats control 20 of a total of 40 seats compared to the Republicans’ 18, with two vacancies.
In addition to Virginia’s 32nd Senate district, the solidly Republican 10th district was recently vacated by Rep.-elect John McGuire, R-VA, who like Subramanyam was elected to the next U.S. Congress.
Republicans are widely expected to hold McGuire’s State Senate seat without much difficulty.
Assuming this, if Harding is able to defeat Srinivasan and flip the 32nd Senate district, it will result in both parties having 20 seats in Virginia’s upper chamber.
In that scenario, Republicans would reassume control of the State Senate – which they lost in 2019 – due to Republican Lieutenant Gov. Winsome Sears being able to cast tie-breaking votes.
If Venkatachalam upsets Singh in the race to succeed Srinivasan, the House of Delegates will also be split between the parties 50-50. However, it remains unclear what party would control the lower chamber.
>> RESOURCES FOR VIRGINIA VOTERS ARE AVAILABLE HERE <<
Politico reported on Wednesday “Virginia Republican Party Chair Rich Anderson conceded that these are ‘tough districts’ for Republicans, but the low turnout and unpredictability of special elections gives the GOP an opening.”
Per Politico, Anderson stressed that he and the rest of the state party are “dead serious about flipping these seats.”
“If you don’t try, you have a guaranteed bad outcome,” the Virginia Republican chairman added. “We are going to put everything on the table.”
According to information from the publicly available Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA), President Joe Biden won both of the Democratic-leaning districts by over 35 points in 2020.
Just one year later, both seats swung double digits to the right in the state’s gubernatorial election. The shift came shortly after the story of Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) covering up the rape of a female high school student by a male student in a girl’s school bathroom made national headlines. The attacker was wearing a dress at the time of the assault.
Failed Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe won what is now the 32nd Senate district by a considerably smaller 21 points (a 14-point shift right from the presidential result just one year earlier), and the 26th State House seat by 23 (a 12-point shift right).
>> RESOURCES FOR VIRGINIA VOTERS ARE AVAILABLE HERE <<
Both districts have a majority-minority population. Per DRA, the current 32nd Senate district in 2020 had a voting-age population that was 44.3% white, 31.8% Asian, 13.5% Hispanic, and 9.5% black. Meanwhile, the 26th State House district had a 2020 voting-age population that was 44.7% Asian, 37.0% white, 10.3% black, and 7.4% Hispanic.
While DRA currently does not report on how the districts voted in the 2024 presidential election, it is likely that President-elect Donald Trump significantly improved on his 2020 performance in both.
Loudoun County as a whole swung nine points toward Trump in the last four years (he lost the county by 25 points in 2020, compared to 16 points in 2024). On top of this, the president-elect gained considerable ground with Asian Americans and other minority voters from 2020 to 2024.
Again from Politico:
But even with Loudoun County’s deep blue tint, there is some cause for concern for Democrats. Trump gained more than four points in Loudoun over his 2020 showing. His improved popularity with minority communities — about a quarter of Loudoun County is Asian — is another data point. That shift in the electorate has provided Republicans a glimmer of hope that there’s an opportunity to make inroads in the area.
>> RESOURCES FOR VIRGINIA VOTERS ARE AVAILABLE HERE <<
Harding’s website states that, since 2020, “Tumay has made headlines as a local activist speaking out against the radical agenda embraced by” LCPS:
Protecting our children and fighting for Parental Rights has become a daily pursuit. Initially battling inappropriate reading material for her daughter, Tumay has taken on Critical Race Theory initiatives in LCPS and the divisive DEI program championed by the recently indicted and resigned LCPS Superintendent.
Her battles with Loudoun County took an even more dramatic turn when the family became embroiled in a botched Title IX/HR investigation that eventually led to termination of one of their daughter’s teachers. The failures of LCPS and the Board of Supervisors inspired Tumay to run for Ashburn Supervisor in 2023.
>> RESOURCES FOR VIRGINIA VOTERS ARE AVAILABLE HERE <<
“Tumay is running for Virginia State Senate to fight for children and parents in Richmond. She believes that academic excellence and our children’s safety must once again be our top priorities,” Harding’s website adds.
It states that if elected, the mother of three “will fight to improve education and keep our children safe, slash taxes and eliminate red tape, and fix our broken energy policy that is leaving Virginia in the dark.”
