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CV NEWS FEED // Former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the presidency in November soared to a 16-point lead over his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris on the leading prediction website Polymarket this week.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the site gave Trump a 58% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election in three weeks, compared to a 42% chance for Harris. The spike represents the Republican’s biggest lead on the site since July 31.
Harris sits at her lowest Polymarket odds since the Democratic National Committee (DNC) controversially declared her as the party’s nominee in early August.
Polymarket indicated Tuesday that there is a 26% chance Trump will sweep all seven battleground states on November 5 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The site also gave Trump a 16% chance of winning all but one of those swing states.
At the time, Polymarket listed Trump’s odds of carrying Arizona at 68%, Georgia at 64%, North Carolina at 63%, Pennsylvania at 56%, Michigan at 54%, and Wisconsin at 53%.
Nevada was the only swing state where Polymarket gave Harris an advantage, albeit a razor-thin one of 51% to Trump’s 50%.
However, even if Trump loses Nevada to Harris, he would still win the election with 306 electoral votes if he gains the support of all the states in which Polymarket currently shows he is leading.
>> LAST WEEK: TRUMP NOW POLYMARKET BETTING FAVORITE TO WIN ELECTION <<
One week ago, Polymarket had given Trump a smaller 52.6% chance of winning the 2024 election compared to Harris’ 46.7% chance.
As CatholicVote noted last week, before Monday, October 7, “Harris was considered by the site’s odds to be the slight favorite to win the election since September 12 – two days after the sole debate between her and Trump.”
On Tuesday of last week, Polymarket gave Harris a slight 53% advantage in the states of Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump now enjoys roughly the same advantage in both states, according to Polymarket.
On Monday morning, political commentator Collin Rugg wrote on X (formerly Twitter): “Bettors are becoming increasingly confident Trump will win the election as he surges to nearly a double-digit lead.”
Trump’s eight-point Polymarket lead then doubled within a day.
“The development comes as a new NBC News poll shows Trump pulling even with Kamala Harris after being behind by 5 points in their poll last month,” Rugg pointed out.
CatholicVote previously reported that Polymarket “brands itself as ‘the world’s largest prediction market.’”
“Via one of its web pages, it states that its markets ‘seek truth’ and ‘reflect accurate, unbiased, real-time probabilities for events that matter most to you,’” CatholicVote indicated.
