"Robert F. Kennedy Jr" By Gage Skidmore, CC-BY-SA-3.0], via Flickr.
CV NEWS FEED // While Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is currently challenging President Joe Biden for the 2024 Democratic nomination, multiple sources have indicated that he plans to switch to an independent run and further shake up the landscape of next year’s race.
As a Democrat, Kennedy is mostly polling in the low double digits against Biden. As of October 2, the polling site 538 has Kennedy averaging 17.2% in national Democratic polls, compared to 60.7% for Biden.
Kennedy’s failure to gain much ground in the primary race against Biden may have prompted his camp to look into an independent or third-party run.
“A super PAC supporting [Kennedy] has begun polling his support as an Independent, one of the strongest indications to date that the long-shot Democrat is set to announce a party affiliation switch,” POLITICO reported Monday:
The poll, conducted by the firm John Zogby Strategies and commissioned by the American Values 2024 PAC, comes amid growing speculation — fueled by Kennedy himself — that he will leave the Democratic Party in the upcoming weeks.
A Monday press release from the pro-Kennedy PAC stated their poll “shows that in a three-way race between Kennedy, [Donald] Trump, and Biden, RFK Jr. enters the contest at 19% with Biden and Trump at 38% each.”
“Kennedy would be the highest-polling independent or 3rd party candidate to enter a presidential election in the modern era, starting off where Ross Perot finished—after spending an enormous amount of money,” the release added.
“If this Poll shows anything, it’s that Kennedy can win as an independent candidate in 2024,” said Tony Lyons, the PAC’s chairman:
If Kennedy decides to run as an independent candidate, it would be to give voters the choice that the DNC has denied them. Independent-minded Democrats have made it clear: They want the opportunity to select their candidate in a free, open, and fair primary process.
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Assuming Kennedy goes forward with these reported plans and runs as an Independent, polls are conflicted over whether his candidacy would provide an advantage to Republicans, Democrats, or neither.
According to many polls, including one conducted by American Values 2024, a Kennedy candidacy would help national Democrats at the expense of Republicans.
“One of the most effective DNC slurs against Bobby Kennedy has been that his candidacy will help Trump win,” the press release continued. “The opposite is true. Kennedy is taking more votes from Trump than from Biden, according to this Poll as well as a recent YouGov poll.”
However, a poll by Echelon Insights found “that an Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would INCREASE Donald Trump’s margin over Joe Biden by one point(!)” the polling firm wrote on X (formerly known as Twitter) Monday.
Citing its poll results, Echelon stated that while Kennedy “takes 17% from Democratic-leaning voters,” he only “takes 11% from Republican-leaning voters.”
FOX News host Jesse Watters agreed with the conclusion of the Echelon poll. “Kennedy’s independent run will devastate Biden’s shot at re-election,” he said Friday.
“Kennedy is polling at 15 percent with Democrats,” he added, citing national Democratic primary polls. “If Biden’s the nominee, 15 percent of American Democrats will have Kennedy as an option, melon-scooping a critical piece of the base away from Joe.”
Kennedy is a prominent critic of how both the Trump and Biden administrations handled the COVID-19 pandemic, and this issue has become an important part of the attorney’s political appeal.
