"Robert F. Kennedy Jr." by Gage Skidmore, CC by 2.0, vias Flickr, edited
CV NEWS FEED // According to a New York Times – Siena College poll, Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is leading both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in several key states among the youngest cohort of voters.
The Tuesday poll showed that in a three-candidate race between Biden, Trump, and Kennedy, Kennedy comes out on top with 34% of the vote of respondents aged 18 to 29.
Despite young voters historically being a reliably Democratic voting bloc, Biden is only polling 30% with voters under the age of 30.
This is consistent with the results of an August poll, also conducted by New York Times – Siena, that showed a majority of 18-to-29-year-olds disapproved of the sitting president’s job performance.
In Tuesday’s poll, 29% of the youngest age group backed Trump in the hypothetical three-way race, putting the 45th president only one point behind Biden.
The poll also showed Kennedy very slightly ahead with 30-to-44-year-olds. Among this age range, the environmental attorney clocks in at 31% with the two presidents tied at 30%.
While Kennedy came in last place with the two older age cohorts, his numbers are still unexpectedly strong for a third-party candidate.
The poll found that the Independent earned 20% of the support of 45-to-64-year-olds polled and 17% of the respondents aged 65 and above. Trump and Biden respectively won these groups.
The poll included data from the six states that were closest in the last presidential election: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan.
Overall, Trump won 35% of all respondents polled, with Biden close behind at 33%, and Kennedy at 24%.
“If 2024 turns into a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as an independent, battleground state voters currently say it would be a very close contest,” reflected Don Levy, the director of Siena College Research Institute.
“It is noteworthy that among voters under 45 in those six states, RFK polls at 32%, Biden at 30% and Trump is at 29%,” Levy added. “While 18% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans say they would back RFK, 39% of independents would back Kennedy, compared to 28% for Biden and 25% for Trump.”
When the three-way poll’s results are broken down by state, Trump is ahead by seven points in Georgia and Nevada and by three in Michigan, and Biden is up by two in Wisconsin. The two are tied in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
