CV NEWS FEED // According to a series of recent polls compiled by the New York Times, former President Donald Trump is performing significantly better with female voters this election cycle than when he first faced off with now-President Joe Biden in 2020.
Trump’s support among black and Hispanic women – two of Biden’s strongest demographic groups in 2020 – has drastically surged over the past four years.
Meanwhile, Biden is failing to make up ground with the male vote, as Trump is set to win men by an even larger margin than in the last election.
Biden’s current polling numbers among women represent the “weakest lead a Democrat has had since 2004,” wrote the Times’ Ruth Igielnik.
Igielnik reported that Biden’s “lead among women has slid to about eight percentage points since the 2020 election … down from a lead among women of about 13 percentage points four years ago.”
She noted that Trump’s support among men has meanwhile “recovered and is back to the double-digit lead he had in 2016.”
In her report, Igielnik showed that these numbers present a particular concern for the Biden campaign.
“Republicans have generally held leads among men in most presidential elections going back decades,” she wrote. “But every year that Democrats have won the presidency, they have led among women by more. Almost every path to victory for President Biden relies on strong support from women.”
>> POLL FINDS TRUMP UP BY 18 POINTS IN IOWA <<
More polling data cited by Igielnik demonstrate that from 2020 to 2024, Trump improved 10 points among white women.
While he was losing white women by two points in the average of 2020 polls, the former president now has an eight-point lead with the group.
The same data convey that Trump is still gaining considerably more ground among minority women.
The data show Biden only 12 points ahead among Hispanic women – 28 points lower than his lead with Hispanic women in 2020.
Biden is leading Trump among black women by 58 points – also 28 points worse than his performance four years ago.
Per the Times, these percentages come from an “average of New York Times/Siena College polls from summer and fall 2020 and a May 23 to June 5, 2024,” as well as a “poll of female voters by KFF [formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation].”
>> LATINO VOTERS TURNING ON BIDEN, TRENDING TOWARD TRUMP <<
Trump’s improved performance with women across racial and ethnic groups comes amid a strident pro-abortion messaging push by Biden and his allies, who frame abortion as a “women’s rights” issue.
On that topic, Igielnik wrote
surveys show that even as abortion and democracy are key issues for a small but meaningful segment of women, concerns about inflation continue to play a more central role in the race and to benefit Mr. Trump.
In addition, several women’s groups have recently expressed that Democratic policies are in fact harming women.
Last week, a Democratic-controlled Senate committee advanced legislation that includes a provision that would force some women to register for the draft.
Some feminists also slammed the Biden administration in April after it made pro-LGBTQ changes to Title IX that make it easier for men to compete in women’s sports.
