CV NEWS FEED // A widely respected Nevada-based political journalist sounded the alarm on the Democratic Party’s electoral prospects in the crucial battleground state.
The Nevada Independent Editor and CEO Jon Ralston weighed in a newly released series of New York Times / Siena polls which showed President Joe Biden trailing by double digits in Nevada.
The polls found that Biden was trailing Former President Trump by 12 points among registered voters, and an even larger 13 point margin with likely voters.
“This is a very bad poll for Biden,” Ralston wrote on X (formerly Twitter) Monday.
Per the Independent’s website, Ralston “has been covering politics in Nevada for more than 30 years.”
In addition, he said that Biden’s deficit is also “terrible” for Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-NV, and Nevada’s three house Democrats, Reps. Steven Horsford, Susie Lee, and Dina Titus, all D-NV. All are running for re-election in competitive races in November.
“Not a huge fan of most NV polls, and this one has anomalies, but Biden is losing here,” Ralston added.
In a more detailed message posted to X, the journalist elaborated: “No smart Democrat I know thinks Biden is ahead right now in Nevada.”
In the message, Ralston pointed out that the polls show that Trump leads Biden by nine points with Nevada’s Hispanic voters – who comprise around one fifth of the state’s electorate.
“Trump is up 9 with Hispanics! Really?” he wrote. “If so, say hello to red Nevada from top to bottom. Only good news for Democrats there: It’s May.”
>> TRUMP UP BY DOUBLE DIGITS IN NEVADA <<
Ralston continued:
Biden has a 63 percent unfavorable [rating] in Nevada compared to Trump’s 50 percent. Nearly two-thirds here have an unfavorable view of the president. My goodness.
What’s really stunning this poll is that the Senate race is in a dead heat. I don’t believe that if Joe Biden loses Nevada by double digits that Jacky Rosen will survive — and that would put all three [Democratic-held] House seats in play, too.
“Biden is down here, and the fact that Nevada has so many disaffected voters of color and young voters probably makes his problems here especially acute right now,” Ralston concluded. “Danger signs are abundant in The We Matter State.”
Polls this cycle have consistently shown that Biden continues to struggle with young voters, Hispanic/Latino voters, and black voters, at levels unprecedented for a presumptive Democratic nominee, let alone an incumbent president.
All three groups were historically reliable Democratic voting blocs, and major components of the “Obama coalition” that has defined the party’s base in recent years.
In a subsequent X post, Ralston broke down some surprising polling results from usually blue areas in Nevada.
“Trump up 8 in Dem bastion of Clark [County] where Biden beat him by 9 in 2020. 17-pt swing!” he wrote.
“In Washoe, where Biden won by 4, Trump is up 14! 18 pts!” Ralston added. “There’s somethin’ happenin’ here…”
Clark County is home to the vast majority of Nevada’s population, including Las Vegas and its suburbs. Reno, the state’s third largest city, is located in Washoe County.
Ralston nevertheless expressed some skepticism with the polling results:
I still think Biden has issues here, and Dems should worry. But let me be clear on what those urban county numbers mean: If they are real and hold — and nothing remotely like them has been seen here in decades so be skeptical — Nevada will be as red as red can be.