Voters in six states go to the polls tomorrow (or have already voted if they have early voting). Here are the four things to watch:
1. How much will Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell win by?
Polling is never perfect, especially in a primary where there is lower turnout. But the latest poll by the Louisville Courier-Journal shows that Mitch McConnell (in the photo on the left) will not only beat back a challenge by Tea Party candidate Matt Bevin, but he’s positioned to win big. The poll shows McConnell at 55%, Bevin at 35%. A poll on possible general election matchup between Republican McConnell and Democrat Alison Grimes has McConnell in big trouble at only 42%, with Grimes at 43%. But if McConnell wins tomorrow’s primary with a big margin, he might be able to win back some of Bevin’s supporters — especially as we get closer to Election Day. That’s a reminder that not all undecided voters are middle-of-the-road moderates that are evenly split between a Democrat and a Republican. Sometimes an undecided voter is undecided between supporting the Republican candidate or staying home. The same could be said on the other side of the aisle for Democratic candidates.
UPDATE: McConnell wins big.
2. Which two Republicans will enter the Georgia Senate run-off?
Five candidates are vying for the Republican Senate nomination in Georgia to face Democrat Michelle Nunn (daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn). The five candidates are: Businessman David Perdue, former Secretary of State Karen Handel (who quit Susan G. Komen for keeping their ties to Planned Parenthood), Rep. Jack Kingston, Rep. Paul Broun, and Rep. Phil Kingrey. Perdue is the cousin of former* Georgia Governor Sonny Purdue. He’s spent a lot of his own money on the race and is expected to make the run-off. Right now, Karen Handel and Jack Kingston are tied in the polls for the second spot. But only one of them will likely advance. The Susan B. Anthony List has endorsed Karen Handel in this race. Here is a breakdown of other state legislative races provided by the Georgia Alliance for Life. *A tip of my hat to James Maney for correcting me. I had meant to say that Sonny Purdue is a former governor. Nathan Deal is the current governor.
3. Will the Oregon Republican Senate primary be won by pro-life Jason Conger or pro-abortion Monica Wehby?
Monica Wehby had an incredibly powerful ad which would leave you thinking that this doctor would be a pro-life vote if she were elected to the United States Senate. But this is NOT the case. Monica Wehby favors legal abortion. That’s why pro-lifers in Oregon are encouraging people to support Jason Conger in the Senate primary tomorrow. Conger has an impressive Homeless to Harvard story worth your six minutes. Either candidate would be considered the underdog against incumbent Democrat Jeff Markley. Obamacare is unpopular all across the country, but it’s very unpopular right now in Oregon because of a scandal involving the rollout of the state’s Obamacare exchange. Merkley was once considered a lock for reelection, but if the Republican prospects continue to improve this state’s Senate race might become competitive.
UPDATE: Monica Wehby won.
4. Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Pennsylvania?
Since Pennsylvania changed its law in 1968 to allow governors to serve a second term, voters have denied an incumbent seeking reelection. That might change because incumbent Gov. Tom Corbett, a pro-life Republican, has very low poll numbers. Republican legislatures with Republican Governors in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio have passed many more bills than their counterparts in the Keystone State. Nonetheless, Corbett and the Republican-led Legislature have managed to close a large $4 billion spending deficit without raising taxes. But the low poll numbers have bouyed Democrats. On the Democratic side, businessman Tom Wolf has used his warchest to flood the airwaves. Rep. Allyson Schwartz is also seeking the Democratic nomination. Schwartz is so pro-abortion that she used to run an abortion facility. She is the last person you would want to elect governor, much less drain commissioner. Wolf would likely be a greater threat to Corbett’s reelection than Schwartz. But which ever Democrat wins tomorrow’s primary would be considered the early frontrunner.