CV NEWS FEED // A comparison of trends across previous election years compiled by Gallup suggests support for the Republican party in the 2024 election.
Gallup found that Americans are currently more likely to identify as or lean Republican (48%) than identify as or lean Democrat (45%). When compared to data from other election years, Gallup noted that the political party that had a significant advantage over the other tended to win the election. In years when one party had a slight advantage, it still won in the electoral college if not the popular vote as well.
Gallup added that one other comparison — which party was viewed as better able to handle the U.S.’s most important problem — also had a strong relationship with results of presidential elections.
According to previous Gallup polling, Americans report that the most important problems facing the U.S. currently are the economy (24%), immigration (22%), the government (17%), and inflation (15%). Forty-six percent of Americans said Republicans are better suited to handle the issues compared to 41% who said the same thing about Democrats.
“This measure has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends dating back to 1948,” Gallup noted. “The party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won all but three presidential elections since that year.”
Previous trends that provide moderate support for Republicans winning the 2024 election include Americans’ satisfaction about the way the country is being run, confidence in the economy, the country’s prosperity, approval of the president, and ratings of both political parties.
Only 22% of Americans are currently satisfied with the state of the U.S., Gallup reported, adding that “Satisfaction levels this low have been associated with incumbent presidents losing their reelection bids in 1980 (19%), 1992 (22%) and 2020 (28%).”
Gallup also found that 62% of Americans say the economy is “getting worse,” with Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index measuring at -28. Gallup explained that a low confidence score is typically associated with the incumbent president’s party losing in the election.
In regards to presidential popularity, six out of seven elections where the incumbent did not run again for office went to the party opposite the incumbent’s regardless of his popularity.
While Gallup found that Americans were more likely to say that the Republican party could protect America from international threats, trends indicate that the statistic generally has little influence on the outcomes of presidential elections. Preference of a unified or divided government — instances when the president belongs to the same political party as the one that controls Congress — also was not found to have any significant impact on elections in the past.
“The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose,” Gallup concluded. “Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party, and those that aren’t are essentially tied rather than showing a Democratic advantage. Nevertheless, the two major party presidential candidates have similar favorable ratings in Gallup’s September poll, echoing presidential preference polls that suggest a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris.”
