
CV NEWS FEED // As Iowa Caucus participants are set to cast their votes in a week and a half, nomination polling shows that barring a major development, a rematch of the 2020 Election is almost certain to take place in November.
Heading into the election year, President Joe Biden and his predecessor former President Donald Trump continue to maintain massive leads in their respective party’s primary fields.
If trends hold as expected, the coming presidential election will be the first since 1956 when both major party candidates were the same from the cycle before – and only the seventh in American history.
Unpopular Biden Dominates Democratic Field
As of Thursday, January 4, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average for the Democratic nomination has Biden at 70.0%. This makes the sitting president the only declared candidate in his party with support in the double digits.
Far-left author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, D-MN, lag behind at 7.4% and 3.4% respectively.
Biden’s domination of the Democratic field stands in contrast to his unpopularity among both the general American public and even members of his own party.
FOX News noted Sunday:
Biden’s approval rating stands at 41%-56% as the calendar turns from 2023 to 2024, according to an average of all the most recent national surveys compiled by Real Clear Politics.
…
Biden stands well below where his three most recent two-term predecessors – former Presidents Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama – stood at this point in their presidencies, as they successfully ran for re-election.
>> POLL: MOST DEM VOTERS WANT TO REPLACE BIDEN <<
“The only recent president whose approval ratings were nearly as negative as Biden’s current numbers was his most recent predecessor, former President Trump, who was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election,” FOX further stated.
The numbers bode well for Trump as he seeks to become the second president in American history to serve non-consecutive terms – a feat only accomplished by Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century.
To make matters worse for the incumbent Biden, recent polling shows that despite his lead, many members of his own party are less than enthused with his re-election bid.
As CatholicVote reported in mid-December:
Fifty-four percent of the party’s primary voters said they would prefer an alternative to Biden, [a] FOX News poll found. Only 43% wanted Biden to remain at the helm.
Trump Close to Third Consecutive GOP Nod
On the Republican side, Trump is the runaway favorite to secure the nomination for the third consecutive time.
Trump’s nomination would make the 45th president the first person in GOP history to be the party’s standard-bearer for three elections in a row.
Although Richard Nixon did win the Republican presidential nomination three times, he did so in non-consecutive election cycles. The 37th president compiled a 2-1 record in general elections, a mark Trump will seek to match.
FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average as of Thursday, January 4, shows Trump with a commanding lead over his field of intraparty rivals. He sits at 61.8% – just less than ten points below Biden’s total on the Democratic side.
Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is polling nationally at 12.1%, with former ambassador Nikki Haley in third place at 11.2%. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is in a distant fourth with just under 5% of support nationally.
These numbers show a slight increase for Trump and Haley and a slight decrease for DeSantis from the FiveThirtyEight national polling average a month ago.
On December 6, 2023, Trump averaged 59.6% of support, DeSantis averaged 12.7%, Haley averaged 10.6%, and Ramaswamy averaged 4.9% – essentially the same level of support he is at now.
>> TRUMP ENJOYS COMMANDING POLLING LEAD <<
Most observers agree that while DeSantis and Ramaswamy are running to the right of Trump, particularly on social and cultural issues, Haley is distinguishing herself as the Republican field’s “moderate” choice.
Trump is also well ahead in both of the two earliest voting states. This comes despite spirited challenges from DeSantis in Iowa and Haley in New Hampshire.
FiveThirtyEight’s Iowa polling average Thursday has Trump at 50.0% of support in the state, DeSantis at 18.4%, Haley at 15.7%, and Ramaswamy at 6.0%.
In New Hampshire, Trump is at 44.1%, Haley is at 25.7%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 11.1%, DeSantis is at 7.6%, and Ramaswamy is at 5.6%.
The Iowa Republican Caucuses will take place on Monday, January 15, while the Republican New Hampshire Primary vote will be cast on Tuesday, January 23.
“Trump has secured major endorsements from Republican leaders this week, gaining the support of Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), which solidifies the former president’s support among House leadership,” The Daily Wire reported:
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) endorsed Trump in November and House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) announced her support for the former president even before his official announcement to run again in 2024.
>> TRUMP AND BIDEN NECK AND NECK <<
Although Trump appears to be cleaning up with his own party’s voters, the rest of the electorate might not share the political right’s sentiments.
The FiveThirtyEight polling average as of Wednesday, January 3, shows that only 42.6% of the electorate hold a favorable opinion of Trump, while 52.4% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Some observers say that Trump’s own low approvals among the American public might serve to counteract Biden’s low popularity in a likely general election matchup.
Still, Trump’s favorability-unfavorability ratings are slightly better than Biden’s recent approval-disapproval ratings.
How Would a Biden-Trump Rematch Look?
What exactly will a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch look like?
A YouGov-The Economist poll conducted from December 31 to January 2 shows the two presidents at a dead heat – each with 44% of support.
A Morning Consult poll conducted from December 30 to January 1 shows a similar result with Trump at 43% and Biden at 42%.
This trend has held steady over the last month. CatholicVote reported December 12 that a Reuters poll conducted over the preceding days showed Trump at 38% of support and Biden close behind at 36%.
