Jonah Elkowitz / Shutterstock.com
CV NEWS FEED // President-elect Donald Trump outperformed polling projections on various levels this week, according to an analysis in RealClear Polling (RPC).
On November 6 Jonathan Draeger wrote for RealClear Polling that the outperformance data is spotlighted in the “blue wall” states. The finalized RCP Averages reported that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were ”considered effective ties” between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Draeger wrote. Trump retained a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, and Harris held the lead by a similar margin for the other two.
“In the final election results, however, Trump led in all three states,” Draeger added.
The mean of Trump’s point-lead for these three states was 1.7 at the time Draeger’s article was published.
Draeger noted a similar overperformance trend in the popular vote. The RCP Average on this also indicated “an effective tie,” with Harris retaining a narrow lead, according to Draeger. However, at the time Draeger’s article was published, Trump was leading by 3.5 points.
“Trump’s popular vote win is particularly significant, as Republicans have only won the national popular vote once since 1992 – in 2004,” Draeger wrote. “This win suggests that despite shifting demographics and voting trends, a Democratic popular vote victory is far from guaranteed in future presidential elections.”
>> Exit polls: Trump dominates among Catholic voters on his way to victory <<
Having highlighted that Trump outperformed polls in 2016 and 2020, Draeger noted that in this year’s presidential election, “Trump once again outperformed the polls both nationally and in all the battleground states.”
Draeger’s full analysis can be read here.
