People ask me every day:
“Do you believe the polls?”
“Can we win the Senate?”
“How many House seats will we pick up?”
The first question is easiest to answer. Of course not! Voter sentiment is impossible to predict with real accuracy. In the modern era, the minority party wins an average of 29 House seats in midterm elections… and polling in October is infamously bad at predicting the final results.
Remember Hillary Clinton’s massive lead in October 2016? We know how that turned out….
But there’s more.
Here’s our case as of today for Republicans winning the House AND the Senate:
TRUST THE POLLS?
Every poll includes certain assumptions about respondents’ honesty, candidate preference, likelihood of voting, and actual turnout. Polls taken in 2016 were notoriously wrong. But polls in midterm elections are even less accurate. In the last midterm “new and improved” polls were again error-ridden, especially in key states.
For example, polls in FL on the eve of the election in 2018 showed Democrat Andrew Gillum up between 5 and 7 percent. He lost by approximately .5%, a 5-8 percentage-point swing. Or the FOX News poll on the Indiana Senate race that predicted Democrat Joe Donnelly would win by 7%. Republican Mike Braun won instead by almost 6% – an almost 13% point swing!
VOTER ENTHUSIASM
Media pundits seem to forget that Joe Biden is president… and that voters are furious about nearly everything he’s done. His approval rating is among the worst in history – just 43%. At this point, Biden’s ratings are even worse than Jimmy Carter’s!
Plus…
Conservative voters are particularly livid with Biden – which makes them far more likely to vote. But liberal voters don’t love Biden, either. His approval rating among Democrats is only in the mid-70s to 80s. And 52% of Democrats now think Biden has mental health problems, suggesting that he’s unfit for office. That massive enthusiasm gap will drive voter turnout in our favor across the country, even in liberal strongholds like Washington and California.
For Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi, it’s a recipe for disaster.
For faithful Catholics like you and me, it’s a massive opportunity to pick up a historic number of seats in the House and Senate.
TURNOUT TRENDS
Remember when the legacy media proclaimed that the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade would destroy pro-life candidates and usher in a “blue wave”? They made that prediction because abortion became the top issue for more voters than ever: 8%.
Today, that number has been cut in half as the Dobbs decision is pushed aside. Compare that with a whopping 60% of voters who cite “poor leadership/government” or “economic issues” as their top concern.
No one can ignore the price of gas. Food. Housing. Cars. The price of everything. In fact, the final inflation report before Election Day shows an 8.2% inflation rate over last year. Since the 2020 election, prices are up an astounding 14%. And everyone knows Biden and his congressional majority are to blame.
People almost always vote for the candidate they trust more on the economy – and this year, all signs show that conservatives have a massive lead on economic issues.
CONCLUSION
Don’t trust the polls.
Instead, seek to understand the fundamental reasons people vote the way they do.
This year, nearly every factor is in our favor.
That’s why Republicans will retake the House of Representatives by a wide margin – larger than the media thinks. And that’s why the GOP can end up with 51 or 52 seats in the Senate.
But there’s one caveat:
To get those results, we have to keep up our momentum through Election Day.
If we take a step back and rest, we’ll lose the Senate. And we’ll pick up far fewer seats in the House.
That makes it much harder to block Biden’s radical agenda.
But if you and I step on the gas now, we can elect a pro-life, Biden-proof majority.