There’s no question that Democrats had great victories on election night. But election pundit Nate Cohn of the New York Times warns Democrats that they still face a formidable electoral college map in 2020.
“White voters without a degree are overrepresented in the most important Midwestern battleground states. The most straightforward alternative for Democrats goes through Florida, which probably gave Republicans their most promising results last week….
“Democrats had a solid night in the Midwest, winning Senate races in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and flipping the governor’s mansions in Wisconsin, Michigan and Kansas.
“The statewide results give the impression of a Democratic resurgence in the region. But they won without surging back where Mr. Trump made big gains in 2016.
“Democrats struggled, to a surprising extent given the national environment, in the old mining and industrial towns where the party used to dominate. Instead, they won with big margins in the suburbs, and with a healthier performance in rural areas and agricultural communities where the Democrats weren’t so dominant in the 20th century.
“Although Democrats proved they could win back Midwestern states without their old strength in industrial-era Democratic bastions, this is a tougher route to victory in states where white voters without a degree represent an above average share of voters.”