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Despite Virginia’s persistent Democratic lean, Republicans have a path to flipping the state red in this year’s statewide elections if they stay focused on core issues, according to CatholicVote’s Senior Political Consultant Steve Cortes.
The two key contests on the ballot this November are the gubernatorial race between Republican Winsome Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger, and the attorney general race between incumbent Republican Jason Miyares and Democrat Jay Jones.
New polling from Cortes’ advocacy group, the League of American Workers, surveyed 1,000 likely Virginia voters and found economic concerns dominating voter priorities.
A striking 43% of Virginians identified affordability as their top issue — more than double the next-highest concern, “preserving democracy,” at 21%.
Cortes believes these concerns give Republicans an opening “with the right focus and discipline into the commonwealth’s decision day this November.”
President Donald Trump’s approval in the state remains low, sitting at just 36%. His signature “Big Beautiful Bill” is viewed with skepticism — 42% of voters think it will hurt their finances, while just 32% think it will help.
Still, approval for the Democratic Party is evenly split at 48% in northern Virginia, and plummets to just 35% in the more conservative eastern region.
But Cortes argues Republicans running in the state’s elections can still win voters, particularly by focusing on two key issues: the “car tax” and law and order.
His polling found that 58% of citizens want the car tax or the “Virginia levy on personal property” eliminated, and another 22% want it reduced.
Immigration also remains a strong issue in the state.
“A big propellant of higher incomes nationally flows from immigration enforcement,” Cortes wrote. “Removing illegal and unjust labor from the market has been a huge boon for American workers, and Virginians seem to understand those benefits.”
According to the survey, 57% credited Trump for improving border security, including nearly a quarter of 2024 Kamala Harris voters in the state.
“Overall, Virginia is not an easy lift, but a winnable one,” Cortes concluded. “Focus on the car tax and broad law-and-order themes, with an emphasis on immigration.”
